While the Yalie would-be dictator, Ron DeSantis, has declared that he
is Governor of the state where “woke goes to die,” more and more
Americans increasingly view Florida as the state where businesses don’t go to
relocate and where families don’t go to vacation or live anymore.
Does DeSatan care?
Nah, he plans to be President when the bills for his authoritarian,
racist, and homophobic policies come due for Florida taxpayers.
The latest budget
crushing initiative is a case in point. DeSantis has pushed through
school
voucher legislation that will hand out an $8,500 voucher to any
family in the state, whether poor or mega-wealthy status. And it doesn't matter if the private school reaping the benefit of Florida taxpayer generosity have accreditation, physical adequacy, qualified teachers, libraries, transportation systems, or playgrounds. As for the Constitutional issue of publicly-funded church schools, don't be silly.
Will this
plan spell the end of public education in Florida? If not, school
boards and parents across the state are likely to face a
previously-unimaginable level of churn and chaos in whatever remains
of public schools.
And how will
private schools respond? Many will see this as an opportunity to
rake in millions of extra dollars by raising tuition, as this
news story has found already in Tampa.
As for that
old-fashioned question regarding the educational value of school
vouchers, the research hasn’t changed. It may be a good time
review
some of that research, even if, for now at least, it is less
relevant in making policy than it has ever been in history.
“Apples to outcomes?” Revisiting
the achievement v. attainment differences in school voucher studies
The summer of 2022 has seen a flurry
of legal and policy efforts to expand
publicly funded private school choice programs. These include: the
U.S. Supreme Court decision in Carson
v. Makin, which ruled that voucher programs cannot exclude
religious schools; Arizona’s creation of a near-universal
voucher program; and various state-level actions, such as a ballot
initiative led by Betsy DeVos to create a tax credit-based
voucher program in my home state of Michigan.
Professor of Education Policy -
College of Education, Michigan State University
joshcowenMSU
I, and many others, have studied
voucher programs for a
number of years now. After more than two decades of research on
vouchers, a general pattern has emerged in the results.
The effects of voucher programs on
student attainment (how long students persist in
school/college) appear at least somewhat positive while the effects
on student achievement (what students know as measured by
standardized tests) appear very negative. Voucher
advocates also point to positive impacts on survey measures such
as school satisfaction or safety as well, but studies employing these
outcomes vary in quality and method and are not generally included as
a major evaluation focus.
It’s also important to understand
the timing of this research. The early voucher studies—roughly 1998
to 2005—focused on programs that were generally city-based and
relatively small (e.g., in Milwaukee)
and found some positive effects on student achievement. This is in
stark contrast to more recent studies that have shown clearly
negative effects on student test scores in places where vouchers have
expanded into large programs, such as Louisiana,
Indiana,
Ohio,
and Washington,
DC. Some of these negative effects have been extremely
disconcerting.
The effects from Louisiana, for
example, approach 0.5 standard deviations in math—more than
double some
estimates of even the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on learning
loss. These initially harmful test score effects often seem to
persist
over time, too.
On the other hand, a few of these
studies have shown improvements on outcomes such as high school
graduation or enrollment in college (e.g., in Milwaukee
and Washington,
DC).
This leaves us with a bit of a puzzle.
How can we reconcile findings that voucher programs lead students to
perform worse academically with research suggesting they might also
lead students to persist longer in school?
As a researcher on vouchers since
2005, I’ll offer a few possible explanations.
First, I believe the positive effects
on attainment are often overstated. Apart from the genuinely large
effects
of the small program in Washington, DC, the positive effects on
attainment in the literature are very modest in size (especially
compared to the shockingly significant negative effects on test
scores). This includes our initial
findings from Milwaukee. Notably, too, our slightly positive
findings on college enrollment in Milwaukee are partly a story of
students from Catholic high schools entering Catholic colleges, which
raises questions of whether these gains might come more from
networking than increased educational productivity. In fact, the
studies that track students for the longest periods of time—from
New
York City and Milwaukee—find
that any attainment effects fade away as students work their way
through college. There’s little evidence of voucher impacts on
rates of college persistence or graduation.
Second, for the most part, the
seemingly inconsistent effects on attainment and achievement come
from different students, schools, and/or places. That is to say this
literature generally does not come from a single group of students
who experienced both negative effects on their test scores
and a boost to their persistence in school. In some cases, this is
because the attainment and achievement studies come from altogether
different cities or states. In other cases, it’s because they come
from different students attending different schools within the same
site. For example, in Milwaukee,
we studied achievement effects primarily in grades 3-8 and attainment
with a separate cohort of 9th graders (with limited follow-up
for students in earlier grades). This leaves us to speculate whether
the positive attainment results are driven by some private high
schools that are succeeding in ways that their private primary school
counterparts are not.
Third, it’s worth noting that
private schools—especially if not subject to rigorous state
guidelines or oversight (as most are not)—might be able to improve
graduate rates by simply lowering their standards and making it
easier to graduate (in ways not available to public schools). Some
writers have
argued that public secondary schools prefer graduation as an
accountability measure because those rates are easier to manipulate
than test scores. If that is true, the same logic applies at least
equally, and probably more so, to private schools that are marketing
themselves to would-be consumers. This story would also help explain
why voucher students are generally no more likely to persist in
college.
This potential tradeoff between
attainment and achievement, if it even exists, isn’t just an
academic argument. Parents have to make decisions about which schools
their children attend—maybe more than ever if private school choice
programs continue to expand. And we have some data on what parents
actually value. We know from voucher application data in Washington,
DC and New
Orleans (that is, based on the characteristics of the schools
they actually choose, not what they say in a survey) that academic
quality is the dominant determinant of private school choice. Other
factors like distance from home to school, safety, religious
education, or after school programs matter too, but private school
parents still appear to overwhelmingly prioritize the academic
success of their child.
All of this leads me to suggest that
it’s time to reframe the question that has been guiding the debate
on voucher effects. That question has been, “Which outcome matters
more, achievement or attainment?,” with some
voucher advocates arguing forcefully against paying much
attention to test scores. Instead, maybe we should be asking, “What
would it take to offset the dismal
learning loss induced by vouchers?”
Joshua Cowen is a Professor of
Education Policy in the College of Education at Michigan State
University. He also currently serves as a research advisor to the new
federally mandated evaluation of the DC Opportunity Scholarship
(voucher) Program.